According to Altcoin Daily, a new interview with Arthur Hayes discusses market regime (bull vs. bear), a thesis that the Federal Reserve will inject trillions in liquidity, a Bitcoin to $500k scenario, and how much ETH might be needed to reach $1 million, indicating a strongly bullish narrative focus for BTC and ETH traders, source: Altcoin Daily on X, Nov 28, 2025; YouTube link: youtu.be/eXsUqbENIYI. According to Altcoin Daily, the interview’s topics center on macro-driven liquidity, long-term BTC upside framing, and ETH accumulation math that could influence sentiment and positioning, especially for momentum and macro-driven crypto strategies, source: Altcoin Daily on X, Nov 28, 2025; YouTube link: youtu.be/eXsUqbENIYI. According to Altcoin Daily, traders seeking actionable context should review the full conversation for Hayes’s reasoning behind the Fed liquidity view, BTC’s multi-hundred-thousand price thesis, and ETH target calculations before making allocations, source: Altcoin Daily on X, Nov 28, 2025; YouTube link: youtu.be/eXsUqbENIYI.

According to @ki_young_ju, Bitcoin on-chain indicators are currently bearish, signaling a cautious near-term bias for BTC price action (source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 28, 2025). He states that any further upside likely hinges on macro liquidity, making liquidity conditions the primary catalyst to watch for breakouts or trend continuation (source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 28, 2025). For trading, this positions liquidity shifts as more impactful than on-chain momentum for BTC in the immediate term, until the on-chain signals improve (source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 28, 2025).

According to @ki_young_ju, Bitcoin is in a profit-taking phase based on an on-chain PnL Index that measures profit and loss using all wallets’ cost basis, and classic cycle theory indicates the market is entering a bear phase, source: @ki_young_ju (X, Nov 22, 2025). He states that only broad macro liquidity expansion can override the profit-taking cycle, as seen in 2020, making liquidity the key driver to watch for any BTC trend inflection, source: @ki_young_ju (X, Nov 22, 2025). This framework implies BTC’s near-term performance is dominated by cycle-driven profit-taking unless liquidity materially improves, focusing traders on liquidity conditions when assessing downside or reversal risk, source: @ki_young_ju (X, Nov 22, 2025).

According to @ki_young_ju, BTC faces a more bearish setup, and a strong recovery is unlikely for the next 3–6 months until macro liquidity returns in 2025. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He emphasizes that macro dollar liquidity matters more than the on-chain cycle, noting tightening liquidity and ongoing selling in risk assets likely persisting until liquidity eases next year. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He adds that both market and on-chain metrics show weak liquidity now and that the classic on-chain bull cycle has ended. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He notes a sharp bounce toward around 100K is possible, but if that level does not break, the probability of another lower low increases. Source: @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025. He cites Luke Gromen’s view that a large US fiscal deficit and weakening foreign demand for Treasuries could leave the Treasury market unstable without fresh liquidity, implying scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin should move higher when liquidity returns next year; he aligns with this view. Source: @ki_young_ju citing @LukeGromen on X, Nov 21, 2025. Trading implications: prioritize dollar-liquidity signals over on-chain cycle, monitor Treasury market stress, treat 100K as pivotal resistance, and expect range or downside until a clear liquidity inflection in 2025. Source: synthesis of @ki_young_ju on X, Nov 21, 2025.

According to @ki_young_ju, BTC spot holders are in a reasonable long-term accumulation zone and selling or shorting here is a bad idea. Source: X post by @ki_young_ju, Nov 20, 2025. He states the on-chain bull cycle ended when BTC touched around 100K earlier this year, reframing expectations for the next phase. Source: X post by @ki_young_ju, Nov 20, 2025. While classic cycle theory points to a revisit of the realized price near 56K for a cyclical bottom, he doubts that level will be reached because coins held by players like MSTR are effectively off the market. Source: X post by @ki_young_ju, Nov 20, 2025. He further notes governments may inject liquidity until mid-next year for political reasons, meaning sentiment could rebound at any time in favor of spot accumulation. Source: X post by @ki_young_ju, Nov 20, 2025.

According to @DowdEdward, he highlighted the idea of a perpetual bond with no maturity by likening it to rent and referenced an Andrew Yang post on X, drawing attention to renewed discussion around perpetual debt structures for funding needs (source: @DowdEdward on X). Perpetual bonds are fixed-income instruments with no redemption date that pay coupons indefinitely, with historical precedents such as British Consols issued by the UK government (source: Bank of England). For traders, the key lens is duration and term premium—changes in the perceived structure of government debt can affect long-end yields and discount rates for risk assets, a dynamic documented in Federal Reserve term premium research and the ACM Term Premium series (source: Federal Reserve). Crypto markets often react to shifts in real yields and liquidity; BTC and ETH have shown sensitivity to moves in the US 10-year TIPS yield that traders monitor alongside the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate during macro rate repricings (source: Federal Reserve FRED and CME Group).

According to the source, the claim about a Bitcoin (BTC) and crypto sell-off resembling the post-2000 dot-com crash with a 1-year recovery window cannot be verified from the provided social media post because it comes from a competing crypto media outlet we do not cite. To deliver a trading-focused analysis with factual citations, please share a primary source from Jordi Visser or his organization (e.g., an official research note, interview, firm website, regulatory filing, or company social channel). Once a verifiable source is provided, we will quantify BTC drawdowns, compare recovery timelines to the 2000–2002 tech bust, corroborate with on-chain metrics and macro liquidity data, and outline trade setups, risk levels, and invalidation points. No trading conclusions are offered here due to the absence of a citable primary source.

According to @KookCapitalLLC, potential Trump stimulus checks could extend the last leg of the bull market and trigger a melt-up that may take months to play out, signaling a prolonged risk-on backdrop for traders (source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Nov 9, 2025). Based on this view, crypto participants can monitor momentum continuation and macro-fiscal headlines as confirmations for positioning in risk assets, including BTC and ETH, with an expectation of a multi-month timeline rather than a quick spike (source: @KookCapitalLLC on X, Nov 9, 2025).

According to @business, Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the growth of stablecoins could, over time, put substantial downward pressure on the neutral interest rate that neither stimulates nor restricts the economy (source: Bloomberg/@business). Bloomberg/@business reported the remark as focused on the neutral rate framework, which markets track for policy path expectations and liquidity conditions (source: Bloomberg/@business).

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the latest ISM Services data imply renewed economic acceleration that he links to a risk-on backdrop for BTC, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He states US financial conditions are the loosest in three years, a liquidity easing he views as supportive for crypto performance, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He adds that the global pace of interest-rate cuts is the highest since the subprime era, reinforcing potential liquidity tailwinds for risk assets, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He further argues the Fed is nearing the end of quantitative tightening and could step in earlier, a shift he frames as bullish for BTC relative to macro conditions, source: @Andre_Dragosch. He characterizes BTC sentiment as bombed out, presenting a contrarian setup aligned with easing macro signals, source: @Andre_Dragosch.

According to @KobeissiLetter, Warren Buffett’s cash pile is now larger than the market cap of all but 30 public companies worldwide, underscoring how much liquidity Berkshire controls relative to global equities breadth. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 1, 2025. For traders, this outsized cash position is a macro risk-sentiment indicator to track; monitor Berkshire’s upcoming 13F and quarterly disclosures for any large deployments that could move mega-cap indices and spill over into BTC and ETH volatility. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 1, 2025. Headline risk around any Berkshire-scale M&A or buyback announcements can act as catalysts for equity benchmarks and correlated crypto risk assets, so watch for sudden shifts in positioning and liquidity. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on X, Nov 1, 2025.

According to @godbole17, a 2021-style altseason is unlikely because today’s macro regime is fiscal dominance with high policy rates, no QE, and targeted, debt-funded government capex that does not create broad monetary liquidity, limiting spillover into speculative altcoins. Source: @godbole17 on X, Oct 23, 2025. He adds that market performance should be dispersed, with store-of-value assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold doing better, stablecoins acting as an escape valve amid capital controls, and only altcoins directly tied to fiscal beneficiaries potentially outperforming; a return to aggressive central-bank easing would be needed for a broad altseason. Source: @godbole17 on X, Oct 23, 2025.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the S&P 500 surged to a fresh record high, gaining 35.5% over the last six months. According to @KobeissiLetter, this rally has added about $16.5 trillion in market capitalization since April 7. According to @KobeissiLetter, the scale of this equity advance is a key macro signal that traders can use to assess risk appetite and liquidity conditions across assets, including BTC and ETH, for positioning and hedging.

According to Ki Young Ju, crypto’s market narrative has shifted from being tech-driven to finance-driven, indicating that capital markets dynamics now lead price action; source: Ki Young Ju on X, Oct 5, 2025. Traders should prioritize financial variables such as liquidity conditions, interest-rate trends, and cross-asset capital flows over product-innovation headlines when assessing directional risk; source: Ki Young Ju on X, Oct 5, 2025. Near-term trade setups are more likely to respond to order-book depth, derivatives basis, and funding-rate regimes aligned with broader financial conditions than to new protocol releases; source: Ki Young Ju on X, Oct 5, 2025.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, four out of five major central banks are easing monetary policy, citing the Fed, ECB, BoE, PBoC, BoC, and SNB as part of this shift (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X). According to @Andre_Dragosch, this broad policy easing challenges the view that Bitcoin BTC has already topped this cycle and suggests a supportive macro backdrop for BTC price action (source: @Andre_Dragosch on X).

According to @AltcoinGordon, the current state of global M2 liquidity argues that capping Bitcoin (BTC) at $90,000 is too conservative and that upside targets should be set higher (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). For trading, this thesis supports a bullish continuation bias for BTC, favoring strategies that lean into strength rather than taking profit at $90K as a hard ceiling (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). The risk to this view is a reversal in global M2 growth; if liquidity rolls over, the bullish extension case weakens and traders should reassess exposure (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025). Monitoring global liquidity metrics alongside BTC momentum and funding can help confirm or invalidate the thesis in real time (source: @AltcoinGordon on X, Sep 20, 2025).

According to @StockMKTNewz, Bloomberg reported U.S. bank deposits rose to 18.4 trillion dollars from 18.37 trillion dollars in the prior week. The change equals roughly 30 billion dollars, about 0.16 percent week over week based on the figures Bloomberg reported. The report indicates a net weekly inflow into the banking system and does not include cryptocurrency-specific flow details, per Bloomberg. Traders can mark this as a modest week-over-week rise in system deposits while awaiting additional context from official releases, as relayed by Bloomberg via @StockMKTNewz.

According to @cas_abbe, rising global M2 historically aligned with BTC upside in 2020 when BTC advanced from roughly $5K to $65K as M2 surged, while a flat M2 backdrop in 2023 aligned with BTC consolidation, and renewed M2 expansion in 2025 aligns with BTC holding above $100K, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, traders can treat global M2 trend as a top-down risk gauge for BTC direction by monitoring M2 acceleration or deceleration to anticipate momentum shifts and by viewing $100K as a key psychological level while liquidity rises, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025. According to @cas_abbe, an actionable approach is to track global M2 YoY and 3-month annualized changes, set alerts around the $100K spot level and derivatives funding when M2 inflects, and align position sizing with the liquidity regime implied by M2 trends, source: @cas_abbe on X, Sep 7, 2025.

According to @rovercrc, US M2 money supply rose from about 12 trillion dollars in 2015 to roughly 22 trillion dollars in 2025 while Bitcoin’s maximum supply stayed fixed at 21 million, emphasizing BTC scarcity versus fiat expansion; source: @rovercrc on X. Federal Reserve data confirm a long-run increase in M2 from roughly 12 trillion dollars in 2015 to above 20 trillion dollars by 2024, validating the monetary expansion trend; source: Federal Reserve FRED M2SL. Bitcoin’s supply cap is set at 21 million by the protocol with issuance declining through programmed halvings, reinforcing the fixed-supply profile; source: Bitcoin.org. During the 2020 to 2021 liquidity surge, M2 accelerated and BTC reached record highs, illustrating how macro liquidity can coincide with Bitcoin strength; sources: Federal Reserve FRED and Yahoo Finance BTC-USD.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, China injected about $98B of liquidity this week, highlighting a renewed global liquidity impulse (source: @MilkRoadDaily). The source reports global M2 money supply has climbed nearly 4% over the past three months, a backdrop they link to historical outperformance in Bitcoin (BTC) when M2 expands (source: @MilkRoadDaily). For traders, the source implies that BTC’s beta to global liquidity is turning constructive, making the trajectory of Chinese liquidity operations and aggregate global M2 momentum key drivers to monitor near term (source: @MilkRoadDaily).